The opening round of the 2026 PGA TOUR golf season is officially in the books. Defending champion Nick Taylor (+650 at DraftKings Sportsbook) picked up right where he left off, tied at the top of the leaderboard alongside fourth-year man Kevin Roy (+2000). Both posted a scorching, bogey-free 62, and they’ve opened up a slim cushion over a crowded trailing pack, with four golfers sitting one shot back at 7 under.

For Taylor, this feels like an annual tradition. His track record at Waialae is borderline ridiculous. He hasn’t finished worse than T11 in his last four trips here, including last year’s win, and Thursday’s round extended his streak to 17 straight par-or-better rounds at the Sony Open in Hawaii.

The biggest story of the day was the weather. The difference in weather throughout the day was significant.

Taylor and Roy were in the morning wave and benefited greatly. For much of the early round, the air was calm, and the course was getable. Trees weren’t moving, and shots were holding. As the day continued, the wind picked up, and scoring conditions got noticeably tougher.

The numbers back it up. The morning wave scoring average came in at -1.87, while the afternoon wave averaged -0.57. That’s a 1.3-stroke difference between waves, which is massive at a course where positioning and precision are extremely important.

The big takeaway for Friday: I don’t think we are sniffing 62 again.

The wind forecast is stronger in Round 2 than what we saw in Round 1. Thursday peaked around 18 mph, but it wasn’t consistent early. Friday’s forecast calls for sustained winds in the 18-21 mph range with gusts up to 24 mph throughout the day.

With drier conditions and heavier winds, the course should play tougher. So, from a betting perspective, target unders on round score props, and find golfers who excel in windy conditions.

Here are the 10 golfers who have gained the most strokes on average in windy conditions over the last two years.

Wind specialists: Top 10 in average strokes gained (last 12 months)

1. Corey Conners
2. Vince Whaley
3. Bud Cauley
4. Seamus Power
5. Russell Henley
6. Keegan Bradley
7. Adam Scott
8. Harry Hall
9. Si Woo Kim
10. Matti Schmid

Round 2 three-ball: Seamus Power (+160) vs. Sahith Theegala and Kristoffer Reitan

I’ll preface this by saying if you want to play it safe and isolate the handicap a bit more, Power (-135) over Theegala is completely fine. It’s clean, and it removes the extra variable.

But to me, the real value sits in the Round 2 three-ball, taking Power and fading both Theegala and Reitan. When you consider the current form of Theegala, the uncertainty around Reitan, and the wind that’s about to ramp up at Waialae, this is a great spot to power up.

I was already high on Power before this tournament even started. He’s a guy who’s had to fight through real adversity the last two seasons with injuries. The reason I’ve been willing to go back to him is that the results finally started matching the talent again. In the FedExCup Fall swing, he showed quality again, closing with a T11 and a T7 in his last two events.

He’s an accurate driver, he can flight his irons, and he can get scorching hot on Bermuda grass greens when the putter shows up. Now, what makes this even more interesting is what happened in Round 1.

Power sits at 2 under, but from watching, it’s clear he left a few strokes out there. He lost -2.22 strokes tee-to-green. He only hit nine of 14 fairways and 11 of 18 greens in regulation. That’s not typical for Power. Despite his poor ball-striking, he finished the round with a reasonable score. He can thank his putter for that. He gained +4.01 strokes putting, and honestly, without that, he would’ve been flirting with a few more big numbers.

Usually, that stat profile would scare me off. But in this case, I like it. If Power can be a gainer on the greens while also struggling tee-to-green, it sets up perfectly for a bounce-back. He’s generally a better ball striker, and his putter is also a weapon. If he can return to his baseline, he’s in for a strong second round.

Then there’s the wind. Power is one of the best golfers in the field in windy conditions.

Now let’s talk about the guys we’re fading.

The direct fade in this group is Theegala. He’s simply not playing well right now. He’s missed the cut in five of his last nine tournaments, and in that stretch, the best he’s managed was a pair of T27 finishes at courses where driving accuracy isn’t overly important. You cannot constantly miss fairways at Waialae and have success.

Theegala’s history at the Sony Open doesn’t inspire confidence, either. Last season was his best finish at T37, but that’s still not good. Before that, he missed the cut and then finished T48 in his first trip here in 2022.

Round 1 was brutal for Theegala. He only hit eight of 14 fairways, and his putter was nonexistent. He lost -4.11 strokes putting. To make the fade stronger, over the last 12 months, he ranks toward the bottom of the field in windy conditions.

Reitan is the wild card, and I want to be careful here because the talent is obvious. The PGA TOUR rookie had a massive year on the DP World Tour last season. He finished eighth in the Race to Dubai and earned his TOUR card.

I’m fading him in this spot anyway. Why? Because this is an entirely different stage. Round 1 looked like the moment got to him. In his first PGA TOUR event since he was basically a teenager back in 2018, he came out and shot 5-over 75, and it wasn’t just one area of the bag. He lost strokes everywhere. That’s the red flag. If he putted poorly or didn’t hit the ball well, a bounce back seemed more likely. Can he bounce back? Absolutely. He would need a total reset overnight. With tougher conditions on Friday, I’m betting that doesn’t happen. It’s all Power for me in this three-ball.

Round 2 match-up: J.J. Spaun (-125) over Collin Morikawa

At Waialae, hitting fairways matters, but that’s only half the equation. If you want to actually contend here, you must make putts. Right now, I don’t think Morikawa will make enough to be competitive at this course.

Morikawa lost strokes putting in nine of his last 10 measured tournaments, and Thursday didn’t suggest a turnaround is close. Morikawa lost -1.97 strokes on the greens in Round 1, which puts him on the verge of six straight events losing strokes with the putter.

What makes it worse is that the rest of his game didn’t look sharp either. Morikawa wasn’t just cold on the greens; he was sloppy. He fluffed a chip, then followed it up by topping an approach on the very next hole.

That’s why he’s in trouble in his head-to-head with the defending U.S. Open champion Spaun.

Spaun didn’t have his best stuff either — that’s what makes this matchup so enticing. Even without everything clicking, he was still 4 under. He did it by gaining +1.19 strokes around the green, propelled massively when he holed out for eagle from the bunker on the par-5 18th.

There’s room for improvement in Spaun’s round, and he would be the first to say that. Right now, Spaun’s game is in a better place than Morikawa’s, and it isn’t close. Until Morikawa fixes his putter and cleans up the sloppiness, he’s a fade against golfers who are playing better.

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